Participatory backcasting
Backcasting differs from other approaches to investigating the future, such as forecasting and exploratory studies. Forecasting centers on the question of “what will happen?” and is concerned with predicting the most likely future. Exploratory studies, as the name suggests, explores alternative futures by asking “what can happen?”.
At the core of backcasting is instead the creation of a desirable future and the development of pathways outlining how the system can change from the current to the desired future state. Participatory backcasting recognises the importance to involve stakeholders when dealing with long-term change and thus aims at designing a joint future vision and to co-create scenarios and pathways.
PB is characterised as:
- Participatory
- Long-term oriented
- Normative
- Consensus-building oriented
When to use participatory backcasting?
Participatory backcasting is useful when current trends are not in line with some targets of high importance. It typically combines quantitative illustrations with qualitative analysis and can be an eye-opener when it comes to realising the need and opportunity for change. Furthermore, the process challenges the trust in forecasts as well as mental barriers regarding what is possible to change. Finally, it highlights goal-conflicts and conflicts of interest.
How has participatory backcasting been used?
Neuvonen, A., & Ache, P., 2017. Metropolitan vision making–using backcasting as a strategic learning process to shape metropolitan futures. Futures, 86, 73-83.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328715301142 |
This study uses the competition “Greater Helsinki Vision 2050” as a case study on vision-making and backcasting. |
Pereverza, K., Pasichnyi, O., Lazarevic, D., & Kordas, O., 2017. Strategic planning for sustainable heating in cities: A morphological method for scenario development and selection. Applied Energy, 186, 115-125.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261916309497 |
In the cities of Bila Tserkva, Ukraine, and Niš, Serbia, participatory backcasting was used to develop strategies and action plans for sustainable heating systems by 2030. This paper describes the use of a morphological method for scenario development and selection within the context of these projects. |
Doyle, R., & Davies, A. R., 2013. Towards sustainable household consumption: exploring a practice oriented, participatory backcasting approach for sustainable home heating practices in Ireland. Journal of Cleaner Production, 48, 260-271.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652612006610 |
This paper presents a participatory backcasting study aiming to create more sustainable home heating practices in Irish households. |
Quist, J., 2013. Backcasting and Scenarios for Sustainable Technology Development. In Handbook of Sustainable Engineering (pp. 749-771). Springer, Dordrecht.
https://link.springer.com/referenceworkentry/10.1007%2F978-1-4020-8939-8_52 |
This chapter argues that the normative elements of backcasting the approach highly suitable to be applied to sustainability related challenges (sustainable technology development and sustainable innovation). A short overview of backcasting studies is presented and a backcasting methodology is outlined. |
Quist, J., Thissen, W., & Vergragt, P. J., 2011. The impact and spin-off of participatory backcasting: From vision to niche. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(5), 883-897.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162511000254 |
This paper presents a framework to describe and evaluate the impact of participatory backcasting experiments, analysing the follow-up and spin-off of three implementations from the Netherlands. |
Carlsson-Kanyama, A., Dreborg, K. H., Moll, H. C., & Padovan, D., 2008. Participative backcasting: a tool for involving stakeholders in local sustainability planning. Futures, 40(1), 34-46.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328707000870 |
Recognising that discussions around long-term sustainability tend to not involve local stakeholders, this study did just that, across five European cities, using backcasting in relation to sustainable household consumption. |
Green, K., & Vergragt, P., 2002. Towards sustainable households: a methodology for developing sustainable technological and social innovations. Futures, 34(5), 381-400.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328701000660 |
The SusHouse (Strategies towards the Sustainable Household) Project explored socially and technologically innovative strategies in relation to three household ‘functions’, using a methodology involving stakeholder workshops and scenario construction. The current paper outlines some conclusions. |
Larsson, J., & Holmberg, J., 2018. Learning while creating value for sustainability transitions: The case of Challenge Lab at Chalmers University of Technology. Journal of Cleaner Production, 172, 4411-4420.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652617305073
Holmberg, J., & Larsson, J. (2017). Challenge Lab–Learning by engaging in society’s sustainability transitions. In the 10th Researching Work & Learning (RWL) International Conference Series. |
These texts report on the case study of the Challenge Lab at Chalmers University of Technology in Gothenburg, Sweden. Using a backcasting approach, the Lab offers a learning space for master’s degree students interested in sustainability transition, whilst also giving them a chance to create value in support of such transitions. |