Backcasting differs from other approaches to investigating the future, such as forecasting and exploratory studies. Forecasting centers on the question of “what will happen?” and is concerned with predicting the most likely future. Exploratory studies, as the name suggests, explores alternative futures by asking “what can happen?”.

At the core of backcasting is instead the creation of a desirable future and the development of pathways outlining how the system can change from the current to the desired future state. Participatory backcasting recognises the importance to involve stakeholders when dealing with long-term change and thus aims at designing a joint future vision and to co-create scenarios and pathways.

PB is characterised as:

• Participatory
• Long-term oriented
• Normative
• Consensus-building oriented

When to use participatory backcasting?

Participatory backcasting is useful when current trends are not in line with some targets of high importance. It typically combines quantitative illustrations with qualitative analysis and can be an eye-opener when it comes to realising the need and opportunity for change. Furthermore, the process challenges the trust in forecasts as well as mental barriers regarding what is possible to change. Finally, it highlights goal-conflicts and conflicts of interest.

How has participatory backcasting been used?